Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. 6. 9. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. Read about our approach to external linking. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. University of Denver, 2. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Contributors wanted During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump University of New Hampshire . These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Sumter County, . It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? We believe this was a mistake. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. 3. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. "They followed through the whole four years. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Trump won 18 of the 19. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? They're just facts about the vote. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. These are the bellwether counties. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. All other 21 counties voted Republican. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. Want to dive deeper? These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Dont simply gloss over this. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Twitter Twitter It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Do you know this baby? From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. The matters that way on their minds are real. All rights reserved. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Subscribe to breaking updates The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. 4. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. What science tells us about the afterlife. 3. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. All Rights Reserved. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. 5. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Will That Last?]. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. 11. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas.
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