(Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. . The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. . Its gone, Jacobs said. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. 2016 Trump. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. Two states have announced recounts. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. Our roads need to be fixed. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. They run the gamut from. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. I just want Trump in. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. A lot of people think things are. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Here's why. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. He didnt vote in 2016 either. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. The morale of the people up there is bad. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. This is a high farming community.. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. At least Biden is honest, he said. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. bellwether. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. They need to take care of the older people here. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. And it can happen.. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? He loves this country. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. He isnt so sure about Biden. I think he is more for giving to the people.. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Nothing is free, Hawker said. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. This includes personalizing content and advertising. I think its very political right now, honestly. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . Vance. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. I believe in a time cycle. He considers Trump pro-life. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Theres significant variability among them though. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. Farming also is huge here. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. He is his own worst enemy.. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump.
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